http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/04/07/putins-attack-on-ukraine-began-today-what-this-means-for-europe-and-the-us/True to expectations, Putin began today a coordinated attack on Eastern Ukraine and parts of Moldavia.
The Russian assault’s first covert phase aims for the utter and complete destabilization of key cities that lie near the eastern border. As I write, mobs, directed by Russian special ops forces, FSB operatives, and local thugs are directing rent-a-crowds in Lugansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv to storm public buildings, rough-up unarmed security forces, and demand referendums to join Mother Russia. As a slight variation, Donetsk demonstrators demand a “free republic.” The propaganda machine is at work full force. Babushkas are brought before the cameras to plead that all they want is peace and to be together with their brothers and sisters in Russia. They are sincere, but they serve the interests of their masked puppet masters lurking in the background.
Russia’s economic destabilization program began weeks or even months ago. Russian businesses cancelled their contracts with companies in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Desperate employees are going without pay. Russian propaganda is wafting a siren song about the prosperity that awaits them if they join Russia.
Putin’s destabilization campaign will take a week or so to complete. The covert phase will culminate with the deaths of demonstrators, supposedly at the hands of Ukrainian security forces, but actually by Russian snipers. (With luck increasingly violent demonstrations may yield fatalities without the help of rifles with telescopic lenses). Russian TV cameras will show scores of bandaged civilians sporting bloody wounds. The beleaguered “local” secessionists will issue prepared pleas to Putin to save them from the crazed Ukrainian extremists.
We have a choice of the two scenarios right now. We will not have a choice in a very short while. What is our answer?
A bold answer would consist of the following measures:
First, immediate joint NATO exercises in Ukraine itself and in the Baltic States.
Second, flood East and South Ukraine with a thousand international observers to provide detailed reports on demonstrations, civil right abuses, and interference with the presidential elections campaign.
Third, immediate delivery of vital weapons (not lunch boxes) by the United States.
Fourth, Europe and the United States vastly expand sanctions of individuals in Putin’s internal circle including Mr. Putin himself.
Fifth, financial guarantees by Europe and the United States to Ukraine in the magnitude of $40 billion, half of which is Marshall-Plan-like grants that recognize that Ukraine is at war.
Sixth, a flood of advisors from the European Union to accelerate Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.
Sixth, increase aid and assistance to Georgia, Moldova, and even Belarus to protect them from Russian armed intervention.
Seventh and most important, understand that Putin interprets concessions as weakness and action as strength. Playing nice with Mr. Putin gets you nowhere.
If the West does not learn this lesson, it has lost the game.
